At the European session, the speeches of policy makers were at the forefront. The report by the European Central Bank (ECB) said that inflation increases in Eurozone and the United States are usually caused by several factors, and energy prices play the main role. The report emphasized that a significant decline in inflation is expected in the first half of next year. On the other hand, Vice President Luis de Guindos said that he believes that inflation in the Eurozone could peak around 3.4 – 3.5 percent in November, and growth in the 3rd quarter will be strong, while policymaker Yannis Stournaras said that he accepts the upward risks to the inflation outlook, but that there are 'ways to go' before increasing the rates. On the other hand, an European Commission executive noted that there are no plans to issue short-term contracts for EU bonds in the short term. In addition, Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, in Germany, the leading country in the region, argued that the trust lost after the submarine deal should be restored.
In the US, which is the focus of global stock markets, there has been an intense flow of news and macroeconomic data. US President Joe Biden said that the world is at a turning point, that they have rejoined the Paris Agreement by working with the World Health Organization (WHO), and that they will also consider new rules on global trade and growth to ensure equal conditions. In addition, the President stressed that they are committed to preventing Iran from owning nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, the US Department of State reported that the Joe Biden administration doubled the refugee admission limit for fiscal year 2022. Accordingly, it was announced that there is a limit of 62,500 refugees for 2021 and 125,000 for 2022. In order to prevent the federal government from shutting down in October, US President Joe Biden came forward to state that he supports the plan to suspend the federal debt ceiling implementation until the congressional midterm elections in November 2022. On the macroeconomic calendar, the current account balance increased by 0.5 percent in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous quarter to $ 190.3 billion, its highest level since 2007, according to data from the US Department of Commerce. According to data released by the Ministry of Commerce, housing starts in August increased by 3.9 percent to 1.62 million, indicating that supply and employment shortages decreased. Finally, in August, construction permits increased by 6 percent to 1.728 million.
Britania e Madhe
The UK session closed in the shadow of the limited news feed. UK Defence Secretary Wallace, in his speech on the newly signed deal with the USA by canceling the billion-dollar submarine agreement signed with Australia and France, stated that there was absolutely no slyness they just used their right to choose. He identified the United States and France as their closest allies. On the other hand, UK Secretary of State at the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Kwasi Kwarteng said that they would solve the high price crisis in the country due to insufficient supply in the face of increased demand for natural gas. In addition, a statement from the Department of Health noted that 35 702 positive cases were detected in the country in the last 24 hours, while 49 casualties were reported.
On the first trading day in the Asia-Pacific markets after a long weekend break, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) monetary policy decision for September was at the forefront. At the meeting, the Bank kept the 1-year loan prime rate (LPR) fixed at 3.85 percent in line with market expectations. In Japan, one of the leading countries in the region, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) did not make any changes to the policy interest rate, which was minus 0.10 percent in line with market expectations at its September meeting. On the other hand, the Cabinet reported that it decided to determine the new Prime Minister at an extraordinary parliamentary session on October 4, and with this decision, it also signaled that the general election would be held in November. New Zealand, one of the significant countries in the region, also reported a stronger-than-expected domestic economy and, accordingly, an improvement in job security, said Christian Hawkesby, Deputy Governor of the RBNZ. In Turkey, Erdogan's announcement that they plan to submit the Paris Climate Agreement for approval by the parliament next month in accordance with the constructive steps was critical. On the other hand, Turkish Health Minister Koca said that the proportion of citizens aged 18 and over who have been vaccinated with at least two doses exceeded 50 percent, while success against the pandemic will also increase as the rate of two doses and full doses of vaccines increases.
Indekset e levizshmerise
The VIX, also known as the fear index, is calculated based on the difference between the buy and sell prices of the options contracts where the stocks in the S&P500 index are the underlying assets. If the index value is below 10 points, it means that there is optimism in the markets and the investors are eager to take risks, the pessimism starts to increase slightly even if it is considered as the normal range when it is in the range of 10 – 20. When VIX is in the range of 20 – 30, it means that the stress in the markets has started. A score of over 30 means that the investors’ desire for risk-taking is under pressure and asset prices will fluctuate.
It follows that the dollar, which is approaching a 1-month high, has somewhat resolved against the basket of developed country currencies, as taper expectations for the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which will end today, are being pushed forward. Although technically this movement can be considered a retracement, it seems possible that eases below 92.90 will stay at 92.55, Fibonacci last retracement line, in order to gain power. At the same time, we will not be able to talk about a negative path unless the 100-session exponential moving average indicating 92.20 is broken permanently. 93.50 and 93.85 resistance zones stand out for rises.
The pair, which is trying to recover by finding support in eases of the dollar in international markets, is under pressure of euro with mixed messages from policymakers about the future of asset purchases in the face of the inflation outlook in Europe, and the pair maintains a downward outlook. At this point, 1.1700 support, which is in a close support position, is a big offer. If the psychological level of 1.1700 is broken along with the permanence, the losses will deepen to 1.1665 and 1.1630. In the tests in favor of euro, 1.1770 remains a strong barrier above 1.1800, while maintaining its position as a strong barrier.
As the risk appetite in global markets recovered somewhat, the pressure on developing country currencies eased. However, in the face of high inflation expectations in Turkey, the real interest rate advantage is falling to a debatable position with the predictions that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) will not make any changes to the monetary policy decision it will announce on Thursday, bringing sales to TRY side. In decreases below the symmetrical triangle pattern, we will follow 8.5700 – 8.5300 range indicated by a Fibonacci retracement range. On the other side, if it exceeds 8.6600 we will follow 8.7000 and 8.7500.
The pair, which could not exceed the 100-period simple moving average in its upward transactions, lost volume and loosened up to the lower boundary line of the minor wedge. Although it received some responses from here during night trading, 1.3570 is critical for the pair, which did not find strength in the first quotes before the European session. During the stretches that may occur below this level, retreats may be observed to 1.3415 below 1.3495. Above, 100 MA, which points to 1.3900, remains decisive in terms of the ability of responses to gain volume.
Due to the two-day public holiday in some Asia-Pacific countries, there were low-volume transactions at dollar/yen, the indicator of the region. As of the third trading day of the week, the price of the pair, where the dollar's decline is effective, continue to decline with purchases of yen assets. As a result, if the pair breaks 109.20 support, we will follow 108.85 and 108.60 support levels, respectively. On the other hand, 109.80 – 110.10 range continues its role as a strong resistance zone in the upward movements.
Although there is some recovery in Gold due to the fact that the US dollar is facing profit realizations in international markets, we are maintaining our expectation of a negative outlook for precious metals while it is expected that tapering messages will be received from the Federal Open Market Committee members at the September meeting. Technically, if strong support for 1762 is broken, losses will continue until 1750 level. And we believe the commodity will be under sales pressure as long as it is permanent below the upper band of the descending channel cutting 1800 level. For possible attacks above 1800, 1812 can be our target.
The fact that the inventories data published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on a weekly basis continues a downward trend is the main element that supports spot crude oil prices. On the other hand, the fact that global case numbers declined after the 4th wave rise is also a demand-side factor. In this regard, if the transition of commodity prices, which maintain the recovery path, to 71.90 is completed, 72.55 may become a target position. Below, the psychological support of 70.00 remains important.
Silver, one of the prominent members of the precious metals group, remains under pressure as investor risk appetite in international markets tends to recover. If 22.40 support is broken, sales will gain momentum and cause a decline from 22.00 to 21.55 support in commodity transactions where the downward path will be maintained unless 23.10 resistance level is technically exceeded. if 23.10 is exceeded, we will follow 23.60 closely.
German index stayed at the lower boundary of the channel pattern due to the responses created by the extended instruments and moderate decline in the investors' stress levels. If DAX40 index, which subsequently opens the way for the recovery path by breaking the minor descending trend, overcomes 15 510, it will recover its losses until the next resistance of 15 635. In case of downward movements, 15 145 – 15 000 range stands out in the current technical conditions.
|Suporti||15 275||15 145||15 000|
|Rezistenca||15 510||15 635||15 760|
We see that the SP500 index, which fell by more than 2 percent to a 2-month low, is facing purchases in responses as the expectations that Federal Reserve will signal a reduction in asset purchases are being pushed forward. If the critical resistance of 4 410 is exceeded thanks to the recoveries that began after this decline, which can technically be considered as a retracement of the intermediate rise, 4 428 may enter the radar of market actors again. 4 350 will be our strong support in possible decreases.
|Suporti||4 350||4 329||4 308|
|Rezistenca||4 385||4 410||4 428|
The leader of the cryptocurrency market declined somewhat due to the profit realizations it faced after its 1.5-month rise, yet it still took control of its losses at Fibonacci 61.8 percent fan line. Potential for a recovery will continue until this area is broken overwhelmingly. And 43 420, 44 890 and 46 550 resistances will be on our radar.
|Suporti||40 650||39 090||37 340|
|Rezistenca||43 420||44 890||46 550|