In Europe, where the vaccination numbers exceeded 470 million with current data, the number of daily cases was announced as 6,439 per 100 thousand people as part of the fight against the coronavirus (Covid-19). As the Daily number of cases in Germany, the locomotive economy of the Eurozone rose to 1,550 thousand as of yesterday, a group gathered in Berlin protested the current restrictive measures. In the shadow of the French government's significant move towards a green pass card, the French showed a bad response to the decision. In addition to these developments, macroeconomic data affecting euro assets were on the radar of market participants.
Retail sales rose 4.2 percent month-over-month and registered as 6.2 percent year-over-year, according to Destatis. Meanwhile, Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), defined as leading data for growth, was 65.9 in Germany in July, beating market expectations, while in the Eurozone it was 62.8, below the previous month.
Rising coronavirus cases were on the agenda in the US, the leading economy of global markets. Recently, as the number of daily cases climbed, the numbers declined slightly yesterday. Then, President Joe Biden pointed to rising coronavirus cases, saying they are ready to deal with the outbreak. On the other hand, Chief Health Officer Anthony Fauci said the restriction measures would not be implemented despite the surge in the US driven by the Delta variant. Developments in the Coronavirus outbreak in the United States, as well as statements by Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed, were of interest to investors. Waller said he was trying to keep inflation rates above the 2 percent target, and said the upside risk-based basis was not his idea.
In addition, the nonfarm payrolls report to be released this week marks September as the time to cut asset purchases in the same way as was done during the previous one, while the national currency, the US dollar, rose above 92 levels. In the US, which has an impact on asset pricing, the latest data released during the day was significant. Manufacturing PMI fell to 63.4 in July, while ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 59.5.
In the UK, where the Coronavirus outbreak has not been dropped from the agenda in recent days, statements on travel restrictions have been decisive on sterling assets. The British government issued a warning to holidaymakers not to visit areas such as Spain that are experiencing an increase in coronavirus cases, sources said. On the other hand, with travel restrictions on the agenda in recent days, the UK has lifted the quarantine requirement for US and European Union (EU) citizens who have received two doses of the coronavirus vaccine.
In addition, within the scope of the fight against the coronavirus epidemic, the British Minister of Finance Rishi Sunak stated that there are no plans to extend the unpaid leave periods, which cover 80 percent of salaries up to 2500 pounds per month, in cases where employees are unable to work, within the restraint measures implemented by the UK between October 2020 – 19th July 2021. In the macroeconomic framework, which is important in terms of Sterling pricing, Manufacturing PMI data set was followed. In Manufacturing PMI data released by IHS Markit, a global information provider based in London, for July, the UK was 60.4, in line with market expectations, although it declined slightly compared to the previous month.
In the Asian session, statements from China had the attention of markets. At the request of the World Health Organization (WHO), the Chinese authorities did not allow it to conduct a new study. As for the issue, Zeng Yixin, vice chairman of China's National Health Commission, said they did not allow it on the grounds that it was contrary to science and common sense. Chinese officials later claimed that the who had politicized the coronavirus study, arguing that it was contrary to the spirit of cooperation. In addition to these statements, China, one of the emerging economies of the Asian market, announced that it will supply coronavirus vaccines to countries that are under the One Generation One Road Project. In Japan, the number of daily coronavirus cases remained upward despite the unusual SOE measures, while the length of the restrictions was extended. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1 percent month-over-month, while it was minus 0.1 percent year-over-year.
In Turkey, amid increasing daily coronavirus case numbers, there was speculation that unvaccinated people would be subject to restrictions, while a cabinet meeting scheduled for yesterday was postponed. Meanwhile, the removal of existing restrictions due to the acceleration of the vaccination campaign supported the manufacturing PMI index in July, rising to 54 points, a 6-month peak. Finally, in July, exports increased by 10.2 percent to $ 16 billion 413 million, while imports reached $ 20.7 billion. The foreign trade deficit fell to $ 4.3 billion during this period
The VIX, also known as the fear index, is calculated based on the difference between the buy and sell prices of the options contracts where the stocks in the S&P500 index are the underlying assets. If the index value is below 10 points, it means that there is optimism in the markets and the investors are eager to take risks, the pessimism starts to increase slightly even if it is considered as the normal range when it is in the range of 10 – 20. When VIX is in the range of 20 – 30, it means that the stress in the markets has started. A score of over 30 means that the investors’ desire for risk-taking is under pressure and asset prices will fluctuate.
The strong pullback in the dollar following the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was capped by the messages of committee members and released data on the locomotive sectors of the US economy. But due to the mixed outlook of developed country currencies in global markets, the index has not yet reached the volume to recover. Based on this, the index will be in 91.70 - 92.30 range on the new trading day above Fibonacci 61.8 percent fan line. In possible tries above 92.30 level, we will follow 92.65 and 93.00 resistance levels.
Following the PMI data, which pointed to strong growth for the Eurozone economy, the euro took control of its losses. Faced with strong support at the 200-period simple moving average, the pair maintains its positive outlook above the descending trend. If it increases 1.1910 resistance, we will follow 1.1945 and 1.1970 levels. In possible eases below 200 MA indicating 1.1855 level, 1.1820 can be considered as the second support.
While the dollar's pressure eased in emerging markets, positive macroeconomic data also supports Turkish lira, which stands out with a competitive interest rate advantage. If the pair which fell below the psychological 8.5000 after more than a month in this direction, stays below the minor channel, which is technically of great importance, it will accelerate its decline to 8.3100 and 8.2600 supports. 8.4000 and 8.5000 above 8.4500 will continue to be strong resistances in the recovery attempts.
While the rise of the UK's 4th coronavirus wave has not been a long-winded one, the pound continues to recover its losses as its optimistic prospects for the country's recovery. Recovery behavior will be maintained as long as the dollar closes above the ascending trend, although it loosens slightly on the relatively resistant stance, the strong resistance of 1.3940 can be tested after 1.3980 is exceeded. 1.4020 resistance might be followed above this level. It is unlikely that the pair will start a retracement movement unless the minor trend line in question is broken. But in this trading scenario, 1.3860 and 1.3820 can be followed.
Japan, Asia's second-largest economy, is under pressure from yen assets to ease the state of emergency under coronavirus measures. As a result of this pressure, the region's indicator pair can move its upward transactions to 110.20, in case, it can break the minor descending trend by exceeding 109.85 resistance above 109.50. In other words, the easing of the pair can be considered as a buying opportunity at 108.80 support, depending on the current major outlook.
In the face of investor risk appetite, which has shown a mixed outlook in international markets, gold failed to maintain its gains. But due to the delayed effects of low borrowing instruments, there is a support for demand for the yellow metal. In this sense, it seems likely that the commodity, which has difficulty finding a direction for a shorter period, will complete the new trading day in 1821 – 1800 range. In case of a possible decline below1800 level, 1788 and 1775 support levels will be on our radar.
In the shadow of a global vaccination campaign, Delta variant concerns are rasping energy demand expectations. However, data on the economic performance of developed countries continues to support the purchase direction. Against this background, the commodity, which has loosened somewhat after its attempts to break the intermediate descending trend, will target 71.65 and 72.40 as long as the commodity stays above the lower limit line of minor price channel. The fact that the commodity eases below the lower boundary line along with 70.00 level may decline to 69.20.
A mixed outlook of investor stress in international markets and pressure on Silver against the dollar index, which is resisting 1-month lows. Depending on this pressure, the precious metal, which cannot exceed the 100-period exponential moving average, may decline to 24.50 support after 24.80, in case it can break 25.10 while maintaining its short – medium-term outlook. A recovery path for the commodity seems technically far away, if the upper boundary line of the intermediate channel, which is currently cutting 25.65, is not broken.
From Germany, Europe's locomotive economy, strong retail sales above market expectations and buying positions on PMI data pushed DAX30 index closer to an all-time peak. Technically, the index stays above the 50-period exponential moving average thanks to the strong price pressure faced at this level, and if the index maintain permanence above 15 620 in its upward attempts, it will end its search for minor directions and head for 15 705 and 15 815. In possible downward transactions, 15 460 remains decisive.
|Support||15 460||15 375||15 280|
|Resistance||15 620||15 705||15 815|
In the USA, the world's largest economy, the pressure of 10-year bond yields on the SP500 index decreased due to the decline in inflation expectations, while the upward momentum in SP500 index continues with the optimism of the balance sheet season, where strong corporate profits and PMI data were announced. In the technical chart, 4 425 and 4 440 levels can be followed, in case, 4 410 level can be exceeded in the price view, which can be considered as a close scenario as long as it is closed in Fibonacci fan zone. Also 4 350 support will be on our radar below 4 380 and 4 366 levels.
|Support||4 380||4 366||4 350|
|Resistance||4 410||4 425||4 440|
MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor's release of a paper on the project, in which Microsoft uses BTC to help people protect their digital identities, bolstered the recovery in the cryptocurrency market. After this support, Bitcoin, which tested its highest level since June 15, loosened slightly. As a result, purchase pressure will be in effect as long as it trades above the 200-period weighted moving average indicating 36 800. We believe a permanent switch over 40 100 will trigger a move towards 44 500 above 42 300.
|Support||36 800||34 600||32 300|
|Resistance||40 100||42 300||44 500|