Daily Analyses

09.04.2021

Fundamentals

Europe

In terms of Euro pricing, the minutes of the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy meeting on March 10-11 were important. According to the minutes, it was stated that it is important to give the message that monetary incentives will continue as long as necessary, that there is no possibility of overheating in the economy and that the increase observed in bond yields is limited. ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the pandemic will continue to put pressure on growth, but that long-term risks are decreasing, and that they will not use the entire asset purchase program if favorable financial conditions are maintained. In addition, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said that favorable financial conditions must be maintained and monetary policy should bring them closer to the inflation target. ECB Executive Council Member Klaas Knot said that early tightening of financial conditions should be avoided and he does not want to see an early rise in bond yields, while another member Olli Rehn said that there is a risk of low inflation, that economic recovery is expected in the second half of the year and it is important to continue the supportive monetary policy. Meanwhile, Robert Holzman, a member of the ECB's Governing Council, said he was hopeful that the ECB would be able to reduce asset purchases at its June meeting, and that inflation expectations in the US were not expected to jump to the EU. On the other hand, the German government announced that Russia will hold talks to get the Sputnik V vaccine. Prime Minister Mario Draghi said the new stimulus measures would amount to more than 32 billion euros. Looking at the data agenda, according to data from the European statistical office (Eurostat), the producer price index (PPI) in February was 0.5 percent below market expectations, which was 0.6 percent compared to the previous month, and 1.5 percent above market expectations, which was 1.4 percent year-on-year.

US

In US markets, the importance of statements from the US Central Bank (FED) was significant. FED Chairman Jerome Powell stated that they generally focused more on short-term measures and that the FED would complete its job and put the economy back on track, and stated that he did not expect a stable increase in inflation, and that interest rates would rise temporarily in the current environment and they have tools to limit inflation. In addition, Powell said they were concerned that the pandemic was affecting low-income workers, so they should continue to support the economy. St. Louis FED President James Bullard stated that the FED was waiting for the epidemic to end, but that it did not change its strategy due to the fact that this situation did not occur, and that they were careful not to draw back support too soon. On the other hand, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that variant viruses are the biggest threat to economic recovery. On the other hand, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that large economies should avoid early draw back of financial support and try to provide serious new support, while the United States supported the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) increase of $ 650 billion. In addition, the U.S. Commerce Department announced that it has placed 7 Chinese companies on the sanctions list on the grounds that they have links to the Chinese military. Looking at the data agenda, according to the data published by the US Department of Labor on a weekly basis, applications for unemployment benefits exceeded market expectations of 680 thousand and amounted to 744 thousand.

Britain

The agenda in Britain was the events in Northern Ireland. As the events between loyalists and nationalists grow in Northern Ireland, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson stated that the way to resolve the differences is dialogue, not violence. Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney noted that the incidents should end without loss of life and that they want to respond with flexible agreements for those who are not satisfied with the Brexit protocol. On the other hand, Brandon Lewis, UK Member of Parliament, stated that all parties in Northern Ireland must work together to resolve tensions and will do everything to make a more constructive negotiation. On the other hand, British Health Minister Matt Hancock stated that as the government, they do not send any vaccines abroad and are moving towards the goal of vaccinating all adults by the end of July. Looking at the macroeconomic calendar, according to data from London-based global information provider IHS Markit, the construction purchasing managers index (PMI) in March was 61.7, above market expectations of 54.6.

Asia

China and Japan axis news feeds were on the markets ' radar during the Asian session. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He said they would keep the yuan exchange rate stable at a fair and balanced level. China's Commerce Ministry said China's international trade continued to cope with the uncertainties, and consumption continued to recover in March. Meanwhile, the China vaccine Association reported that the vaccine production target in 2022 is 5 billion doses, and that they aim to vaccinate 70 percent of the population by the end of the year. When looking at the macroeconomic calendar, National Bureau of statistics of China (NBS) by, according to data published in March, the Consumer Price Index, compared to the previous month, below market expectations of minus 0.4 per cent to minus 0.5 per cent on an annual basis, while 0.3% market expectations of 0.4 percent. In addition, PPI was 4.4 per cent above market expectations, up from 3.5 per cent a year earlier. On the other hand, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said that stricter measures will be taken in Tokyo and that they are evaluating strict measures for more regions, while a statement from the Japanese government said that the economy is in a difficult situation due to the epidemic, but continues to recover.


Indicators

MSCI iShared ETF’s

Msciisharedetfs
MSCI iShared ETF’sDownload Image

MSCI ETF indices are used for measuring the performance of a stock market located within a certain region. Prior to take any actions regarding the relevant region, stock market investment funds follow up the ETF yields and risk measurement.

Volatility Indices

Volatilityindices
Volatility IndicesDownload Image

Volatility indices are calculated based on the purchase - sale difference of option contracts where stocks are the underlying assets. If the index value is below 10 points, it is interpreted that the optimism in the markets is the dominant and investors are eager to take risks, although it is accepted as the normal range to be calculated in the range of 10 - 30, the stress starts to increase and if it is above 30 points, pessimism is valid and there will be fluctuations in asset pricing.


US Index

USIndex

Reactions to US bonds, which rose to their highest level during the pandemic period, are putting downward pressure on the index, depreciating the dollar in the markets.If the index, which started the correction movement by breaking the minor rising wedge formation with this pressure, can break the 91.90 support in a pressured way, fibonacci can test the value of the 50.0 percent retracement line, the 91.60 level. In possible upward movements of the index, a resistance of 92.70 above 92.40 can be observed.

Support91.9091.6091.25
Resistance92.4092.7093.00

Parities

EURUSD

In parity, the recovery, which began with news flows reflected in markets that more than 55 percent of the total population could be vaccinated by the end of June in the region's largest countries, continues with ECB minutes and published data for the region.Technically speaking, the parity, which tends to recover its losses by breaking the descending wedge formation, can recover to the level of 1.1965 and then 1.2000 if it can pass above 1.1930 resistance above. The supports of 1.1870 and 1.1835 remain important levels in the retracement of the pair.

Support1.18701.18351.1800
Resistance1.19301.19651.2000
RegionMeeting DateActionCurrent Interest Rate
12.04.2021
12.04.2021
12.04.2021
12.04.2021
12.04.2021
12.04.2021

GBPUSD

Due to the vaccination of more than half of the population in the UK, with the expectations that the economy will return to the pre-pandemic period earlier than the developed countries, the sterling continues to maintain its attractive appearance by finding support from the loss of power of the dollar.Technically speaking, the parity, holding on to the main rising trend in its easing, can focus on 1.3915 resistance if it can break the upper limit line of the minor wedge with the level of 1.3860 above 1.3800 in line with the pricing demand in favor of the pound it continues. On the other hand, as long as the pair does not break the trend line with permanent closes, it does not seem possible for the retracements to strengthen. However, in this possible scenario, 1.3680 and 1.3620 supports may be on the agenda.

Support1.36801.36201.3565
Resistance1.38001.38601.3915

USDJPY

Global markets have seen the Japanese yen fall sharply in parity after the recovery that began in the safe haven.If the pair breaks the rising trend line and crosses into the negative zone, it can retract gains up to 108.70 support if it can hang behind the 109.00 support. The minor trend line is in the key position as the pair can start a recovery movement.

Support109.00108.70108.40
Resistance109.60109.85110.20

Commodities

XAUUSD

Ounce of gold, which is the most important member of the safe instruments group, which is strengthened by the loosening of 10-year US bond yields to below 1.70 percent, is recovering its losses. On the new trading day, the yellow metal may follow the 1778 level after 1765, confirming that if it can permanently pull its pricing above the band zone, it will begin the recovery movement. Supports of 1740 and 1728 maintain their importance in loosening that may occur in the permanence of the commodity below the upper border line of the band.

Support174017281715
Resistance176517781790

USOIL

Energy demand, which is under pressure due to the rising trend of the global number of cases, negatively affects crude oil pricing. Accordingly, if the commodity, which exhibits a weak pricing behavior, can relax below the 59.00 support, then it can be traded at the 58.40 support. On the other hand, the upward movements of crude oil do not seem possible to become evident unless the 60.20 level is exceeded.

Support59.0058.4057.80
Resistance60.2060.8061.40

XAGUSD

Silver ended its downward trend with reactions following short-term volume losses. In the continuation of this movement, which will be decisive in terms of the new pricing direction of the commodity, pressure on the trend line can be established, if the resistance of 25.70 can be exceeded, the resistance of 26.00 can be targeted. In commodity easing, a 100-period weighted moving average indicating a level of 25.00 may serve as a strong support.

Support25.0024.6524.30
Resistance25.7026.0026.40

Indices

DAX30

The German index, which ended the week at a record high following the Easter holiday, has eased slightly, with limited profit adjustments it faces. But in index pricing, where upward momentum will continue as long as their close is above the psychological 15,000, levels 15 310, 15 420 and 15 540 can be tracked in upward movements. 14 880 level can be monitored for possible price SAG that the index can perform from this level. But in terms of strengthening this movement, the minor trend line will be decisive.

Support15 10015 00014 880
Resistance15 31015 42015 540

S&P500

Investor stress, which has fallen to its lowest level since February 2020, is working as a catalyst for positive pricing of the SP500 index. Technically speaking, the index, which maintains its momentum in line with its closings above the fibonacci 50.0 percent fan line, can then focus on the 4138 level if it can push its pricing over 4 120. In index relaxations, it can gather power from the upper boundary line of the main rising channel that passes 4 058 behind 4 090 and 4 074.

Support4 0904 0744 058
Resistance4 1204 1384 155

Cryptos

BTCUSD

Incoming purchases in international markets due to the increasing investor risk appetite keep Bitcoin close to the high record. In the leading crypto currency pricing, where the positive outlook will continue as long as the pressure is put on the 55 400 in the intermediate support position, the level of 60 600 may also be possible in the trials that can be over 59 300. 54 000 support can be followed in the possible transition of Bitcoin to this level.

Support56 70055 40054 000
Resistance59 30060 60062 000

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