Daily Analyses

07.04.2021

Fundamentals

Europe

In the eurozone, the importance of statements from the European Central Bank (ECB) side was high. Jens Weidmann, a member of the ECB's Governing Council and head of Germany's central bank (Bundesbank), said growth in Germany in 2021 could be below the 3 percent target due to quarantine. Yannis Stournaras, also a member of the ECB's Governing Council, said the ECB should continue its asset purchases for as long as possible. Pierre Wunsch, a member of the ECB's Governing Council, said that tightening steps may be necessary if the economy is to experience significant strengthening, and that the ECB may extend its asset purchase program beyond March 2022.

On the other hand, EU Commission Economic Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni stated that the economic outlook of the Euro Zone is positive and the legal foundations of the EU Rescue Fund are solid, and according to the EU document, 70 percent of the population can be vaccinated by the end of June. On the other hand, Italian media reported that the European Medicines Agency (EMA) thinks there is a connection between the AstraZeneca vaccine and the formation of blood clots. In addition, according to a senior German official, Germany has indicated that US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen hopes to agree on global corporate tax by June. The European Statistical Office (Eurostat), according to data in the euro area, the unemployment rate in February, according to data based in Frankfurt, while 8.3 percent above the market consensus of 8.1 percent of the market research institute Sentix's, in March in the Eurozone investor confidence, It amounted to 1.13 over the 7.5 level.

US

In the United States, President Joe Biden's statements were prominent on the agenda. Biden said that they have brought the date that all adults will be eligible to be vaccinated 12 days ahead and that they are aiming for everyone to have vaccination permission by April 19, and stated that they are still in a life-and-death battle with the virus. Meanwhile, White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki announced that they are working with vaccine manufacturer AstraZeneca to determine new facilities for vaccine production. On the other hand, the White House's Chief Medical Adviser, Dr. Anthony Fauci stated that the application of vaccination passports will not be made mandatory by the government, and the rate of those vaccinated in the United States is 32 percent.

In addition, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that they expect a rapid recovery in the economy, that the USA's strong economic growth will positively affect the whole world and that they expect to return to full employment next year, and stated that the support provided against the epidemic should not be withdrawn quickly. Looking at the macroeconomic calendar, according to the data published by the US Department of Labor, the job opportunities and personnel turnover rate (JOLTS) in February was 7.36 million, above market expectations of 6.99 million.

Britain

In Britain, uncertainty over travel has been on the agenda as the transition to normalisation is expected from April 12th. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said he has not given up on a plan for travel to resume on May 17 and could use the rapid test app to reassure Airlines. On the other hand, Airlines announced that the UK should put the US among the countries that can travel, and the government should immediately inform them about the normalization steps as of May 17, and that even those coming from the green zones can limit travel.

Meanwhile, UK vaccine Minister Nadhim Zahawi said the UK would not need coronavirus vaccine certificates when the service sector reopens, but would monitor how other countries use technology to keep the virus under control in the process. In addition, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that it had revised its global economic growth forecast for 2021 from 5.5 per cent to 6 per cent, while for the UK it had revised it from 4.5 per cent to 5.3 per cent. In the report, it was pointed out that Britain is fast in the vaccination program.

Asia


During the Asian session, news flows based on China and Japan were followed by the markets. China's central bank (PBoC) has announced it is asking the country's major banks to curb rapid credit growth, taking into account the risk of an asset bubble. Meanwhile, during a meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi Toshimitsu, Yi warned Japan not to interfere in China's internal affairs, saying that the good relationship between the two countries will help the development of the region.

Toshimitsu stated that they are ready to establish more dialogue with China. On the other hand, Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso stated that they will support the IMF's increase of special attraction rights by 650 billion as long as transparency is ensured and welcomes the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's call for a global corporate tax.


Indicators

MSCI iShared ETF’s

Msciisharedetfs
MSCI iShared ETF’sDownload Image

MSCI ETF indices are used for measuring the performance of a stock market located within a certain region. Prior to take any actions regarding the relevant region, stock market investment funds follow up the ETF yields and risk measurement.

Volatility Indices

Volatilityindices
Volatility IndicesDownload Image

Volatility indices are calculated based on the purchase - sale difference of option contracts where stocks are the underlying assets. If the index value is below 10 points, it is interpreted that the optimism in the markets is the dominant and investors are eager to take risks, although it is accepted as the normal range to be calculated in the range of 10 - 30, the stress starts to increase and if it is above 30 points, pessimism is valid and there will be fluctuations in asset pricing.


US Index

USIndex

Bond interest rates, which remain high compared to the pandemic period, are keeping dollar demand alive, although they have retreated somewhat in US markets.On the other hand, it seems impossible for the index to start a minor correction movement if the lower boundary line of the bullish channel is not broken.

Support92.0091.7091.40
Resistance92.6092.9093.20

Parities

EURUSD

News flows reflected in markets that vaccine immunity could be achieved by the end of June, mainly in countries with Europe's largest economies, supported euro pricing. Technically speaking, the pair, reacting from a near five-month low, broke the descending wedge formation, paving the way for a recovery path. If the pair can hold above the upper boundary line of the wedge and pull its pricing to resistance 1.1900, it can test the level 1.1935 and then 1.1975.The 1.1840 and 1.1800 levels maintain their importance in the retracement of the pair.

Support1.18401.18001.1760
Resistance1.19001.19351.1975
RegionMeeting DateActionCurrent Interest Rate
12.04.2021
12.04.2021
12.04.2021
12.04.2021
12.04.2021
12.04.2021

GBPUSD

The opening of the UK by taking early control of the 3rd wave of coronavirus compared to many developed countries supports sterling assets. Along with this support, the pair, which retains its buyer appearance, can also continue its operations in favor of Sterling to 1.3960 resistance if it can break the upper boundary line of the descending wedge, which continues with the level of 1.3910 above 1.3870.On the other hand, the main trendline also sets a barrier for the pair's eases below 1.3750, which is behind 1.3790.

Support1.37901.37501.3700
Resistance1.38701.39101.3960

USDJPY

The parity, which completed the correction movement with the ground created by the moderate easing in the dollar, held on to the main rising trend.At the same time, the pair, which has signaled that it will continue to maintain its current appearance, can raise resistance to 110.30 if it can move its pricing above 110.00 again.In the possible transition of the pair below the rising trend, the sell-side transactions can be accelerated to the 109.20 support behind 109.50.

Support109.50109.20108.85
Resistance110.00110.30110.65

Commodities

XAUUSD

Strengthened by the moderate retracement of US 10-year bond yields, the yellow metal ended the intermediate downward trend.Ounce of gold can climb to 1774 resistance if it can break the upper boundary line of the minor channel that passes 1760 on 1748, which is decisive for its recovery path.In the persistence of the commodity below this level, the 1726 and 1712 levels can be followed in price swings.

Support172617121700
Resistance174817601774

USOIL

Relative restrictions imposed in the context of controlling the 3rd wave of coronavirus in developing countries, especially in Europe, are suppressing demand for crude oil. If the commodity, which shows an example of weak pricing in this direction, can trade below the 58.80 level, the 58.00 level can be discussed. In terms of the recovery of commodity prices, the upper band region, which passes around 60.40, plays a key role.

Support58.8058.0057.20
Resistance60.4061.2062.00

XAGUSD

Although precious metals in global markets try to recover with the opportunity of losing some value in long-term bond yields, the high course of interest rates compared to the pandemic period continues to be a major downside risk. Technically, if the commodity, which pauses its upward movement in the fibonacci correction zone, can loosen to the 24.80 support with the ongoing selling pressure, it may decline to 24.50 support. In the upward attacks of silver, the 25.40 level can work as strong resistance.

Support24.8024.5024.20
Resistance25.4025.7026.00

Indices

DAX30

With the increasing investor risk appetite in global markets, the DAX30 index opened from a record high after Easter. The German index, which can maintain its positive pricing behavior as long as the closures are realized above the psychological borderline of 15,000, can then bring the 15 450 level to the target position if the fibonacci, which points to the 15 360 level, can pass above the 100 percent expansion line. In possible price sags that the index may realize below 15 000 in the intermediate support position, the level of 14 880 may be on the agenda.

Support15 11015 00014 880
Resistance15 36015 45015 540

S&P500

The consecutive packages announced to help the world's largest economy recover from the effects of the coronavirus act as a catalyst in the pricing of the SP500 index.In addition, the index, which refreshes its all-time peak along with investor stress that has regressed to the pre-pandemic period, can target 4 124 above 4 100 as long as it holds above 4 050. If the index moves down this level, it can receive support from a simple moving average of 50 periods with a level value of 4 000 behind 4 026.

Support4 0504 0264 000
Resistance4 1004 1244 150

Cryptos

BTCUSD

The high investor risk appetite in international markets keeps the leading cryptocurrency close to its record high. In this context, with the buy positions in play, if Bitcoin can permanently overcome the 59 000 resistance, it can focus on the level of 62 200 above 60 600. In the regression of Bitcoin, the 55 800 level below 54 200 remains critical.

Support55 80054 20052 600
Resistance59 00060 60062 200

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