Dnevne analize

15.01.2021

Fundamentals

Europe

The minutes of the European Central Bank's (ECB) December monetary policy meeting were important for the markets. According to the minutes, there was concern about the effects of the euro on inflation, the impact of interest rate cuts could be negative, and the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) pros were greater than its cons. In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel said she wants the meeting with region leaders on January 25th to be earlier and tougher measures should be discussed. On the other hand, French Prime Minister Jean Cartex announced a curfew, which will be implemented as of 18: 00 p.m. Saturday, to prevent the spread of the variant coronavirus in the country.

In addition, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said he would sit down with the Biden administration to resolve sanctions between the United States and France, as well as resolve the issue of public debt after the epidemic crisis. In addition, after Matteo Renzi, leader of Italia Viva, the smallest of the 5 coalition parties that make up the government in Italy, announced his withdrawal from the government, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte will reportedly meet with opposition parties who want to take part in the government. Looking at the macroeconomic agenda, according to the preliminary data published by Destatis, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Germany in Q4 was announced as 8.5 percent, above market expectations of 8.2 percent, compared to the previous quarter, while it declined 5.0 percent year-over-year meeting expectations of minus 5.1 percent.

US

In US markets, the stimulus package announced by President-elect Joe Biden was the most important development on the agenda. Biden announced that U.S. citizens would be given a $ 1,400 direct payment check while offering a giant $ 1.9 trillion package to combat coronavirus and counter the economic crisis. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump, nearing his final days in office, has taken steps to strengthen the executive order imposing sanctions on companies linked to the Chinese military. According to the newly signed decree, Chinese companies that are on the sanctions list are ordered to remove the Securities in their hands until November 11, 2021.

In addition, the U.S. Commerce Department announced the blacklisting of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC). In addition, Fed President Jerome Powell said that they will not raise interest rates unless there are problems with inflation, and there is no time to discuss changes in bond purchases, while Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said that the Fed will continue its asset purchases until there is a strong recovery. Looking at the macroeconomic calendar, according to data published by the US Department of Labor on a weekly basis, applications for unemployment benefits totaled 965 thousand, which was above market expectations of 795 thousand. Also, according to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Oil Market Report, OPEC's crude oil production in December was 25.36 million barrels, up 0.28 million barrels per day compared to the previous month, while global oil production increased by 0.58 million barrels per day to 92.93 million barrels.

Britain

In Britain, statements from the Cabinet of Prime Minister Boris Johnson were on the markets' radar. The UK government announced that pharmacies will administer the coronavirus vaccine, and millions of people will be vaccinated in less time, while Health Minister Matt Hancock said that they provide better opportunities for people who want to get vaccinated, and this decision will make a big difference in the vaccine dissemination program. A spokesman for the PM office said the Cabinet held a meeting on preventing the entry of the new strain of virus detected in Brazil, and the second phase of the vaccination program would focus on people at high risk of coronavirus.

Meanwhile, UK Environment Minister George Eustice announced that he will hold talks with Dutch, French and Irish officials over possible financial problems Scotland will face due to customs delays with the Brexit trade deal. In addition, UK Trade Minister Liz Truss said she wanted to have an early meeting on customs duties with Chief Trade Adviser Katherina Tai, who will serve in the new US administration, and would be clear to reach a solution.

Azija

In the Asian session, China and Japan news was at the forefront. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian urged the United States to abide by the provisions of the One China principle and immediately stop using the Taiwan issue for political manipulation. On the other hand, a statement from Chinese vaccine developer Sinovac said that the 50.38 percent effectiveness rate obtained in Phase-3 studies conducted in Brazil was low due to the fact that it was performed on health care workers at high risk of infection. On the Japanese side, it was important that Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga explained that the Medical Association had urged them to consider a nationwide emergency, and that this possibility was on the Cabinet table.

Meanwhile, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Harihuko Kuroda said the Bank was prepared to give more stimulus if the outbreak deflected the fragile recovery in Japan's economy. In Turkey, the start of the use of the CoronaVac vaccine of Sinovac, which received approval for use, was critical. Health Minister Fahrettin Koca took the first dose of the vaccine on the first day and said that the number of health care workers vaccinated exceeded 100 thousand and they have a strong infrastructure for the vaccine program. In addition, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan shared that they want all citizens to be vaccinated.


Indicators

MSCI iShared ETF’s

Msciisharedetfs
MSCI iShared ETF’sPrenesi sliko

MSCI ETF indices are a measure of stock market performance for a particular region. Exchange traded funds track ETF returns and risk measurements before taking action against the region to be invested.

Volatility Indices

Volatilityindices
Volatility IndicesPrenesi sliko

The VIX, also known as the fear index, is calculated based on the difference between the buy and sell prices of the options contracts where the stocks in the S&P500 index are the underlying assets. If the index value is below 10 points, it means that there is optimism in the markets and the investors are eager to take risks, the pessimism starts to increase slightly even if it is considered as the normal range when it is in the range of 10 – 20. When VIX is in the range of 20 – 30, it means that the stress in the markets has started. A score of over 30 means that the investors’ desire for risk-taking is under pressure and asset prices will fluctuate.


US Index

USIndex

Rising pressure in US politics caused the dollar to stop its recovery movement. However, if the index, which cannot move its prices above 90.50 level indicated by Fibonacci 50.0 percent line and indicates that the recovery behavior may strengthen, gets below 90.00 level with the effect of ongoing downward pressure, it will deepen to 89.70 and then 89.40 support.

Podpora90.0089.7089.40
Resistance90.5090.8091.10

Parities

EURUSD

The euro's recent weak course against the dollar was contributed by the negative growth figures announced for Germany, Europe's largest economy. Technically, the pair, which also continues its negative moves in a minor descending trend, can break 1.2120 support below, and then fall to 1.2090 and 1.2050 supports. 1.2170 resistance is critical in possible recovery attempts of the pair.

Podpora1.21201.20901.2050
Resistance1.21701.22001.2240

GBPUSD

In line with some recovery in sterling assets as the UK stepped up its vaccination campaign against coronavirus, we watched the pair climbed to 1.3700. But the pair, which faced strong resistance at this level, can relax and rise again from 1.3580 level, which is Fibonacci 50.0 percent line below 1.3630. And in its movements above 1.3700, we will follow 1.3760 and 1.3820 resistances.

Podpora1.36301.35801.3540
Resistance1.37001.37601.3820

USDJPY

With the decline in demand for safe assets in global markets, the pair ended its recovery movement after the dollar lost strength. Technically, the pair, which tends to negative outlook by limiting its upward movements in the main descending trend, may decrease to 103.60 support In this case, we will follow 103.35 and 103.10 supports. In terms of the fact that the recovery movement of the pair can gain strength, 104.25 resistance over 104.00 plays a decisive role.

Podpora103.60103.35103.10
Resistance104.00104.25104.50

Commodities

XAUUSD

A recovery in US inflation expectations and a premium on 10-year bond interest rates have depreciated the Gold. With this loss, the precious metal, which settled below the 50-period weighted moving average, can break the positive trend line that points to 1822 level below 1838 in line with its weak course. Then, it will possibly complete the double top pattern, return and fall to 1806 level. 1884 level, which is the value of the 50-period weighted moving average above 1868, can be followed in the attempts that the commodity can perform to recover.

Podpora183818221806
Resistance186818841900

USOIL

OPEC's forecast for an increase in crude oil demand in 2021 supported the spot commodity price, led by futures contracts. However, the black gold that maintains a bullish desire in the minor price channel can continue its gains to 54.50 and then 55.00, in case, it can exceed 54.00 resistance. In possible transition of the commodity below the channel, 52.60 and 52.00 supports below 53.00 may be on the agenda.

Podpora53.0052.6052.00
Resistance54.0054.5055.00

XAGUSD

While risk appetite in global markets is mixed, we see silver trying to pick up value losses. If the commodity holds above the minor descending trend, the recovery desire will lead us to 26.00 and 26.40 resistance levels. On the other side, 25.20 and 24.80 supports can be monitored for possible downward movements of the commodity.

Podpora25.2024.8024.40
Resistance26.0026.4026.80

Indices

DAX30

Global stock markets had a relatively mixed outlook and DAX30 index declined. If the index remains below ascending trend, it will possibly deepen to 13 850 and 13 780 supports with further pressure on the index. 14 000 and 14 080 resistances, on the other hand, can be followed in possible recovery movement of the index.

Podpora13 85013 78013 700
Resistance14 00014 08014 160

S&P500

Due to rising pressure in US politics, SP500 index shows short-term horizontal movements. This movement of the index, which can also be considered as a phase of profit preserving, cannot be long-term after meeting the current upward potential as long as it maintains permanence above Fibonacci 61.8 percent fan line, and can progress to 3 856 by following the record high of 3 833 above 3 810 level. Any possible easing of the index below the fan line in question could lead to a loss of momentum, leading to 3 764 and 3 740 supports.

Podpora3 7643 7403 716
Resistance3 8103 8333 856

Cryptos

BTCUSD

Holding on to the ascending trendline in its retreat, the leading cryptocurrency turned to gains in value with the responses taken. On the new trading day, Bitcoin can target 41 200 and 42 600 resistance levels, in case, it can exceed 39 800 resistance above, maintaining positive movements. On the other side, 37 000 and 35 600 support levels will be on our radar in possible downward movements.

Podpora37 00035 60034 200
Resistance39 80041 20042 600

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