Oil Forecast for 2022

14.01.2022
Oil Forecast for 2022
Oil price depends on the interaction between supply and demand in international markets. 
Oil is a commodity, and as such, it tends to see larger fluctuations in price than more stable investments, such as stocks. There are several influences on oil prices, and we will see how analysts predict its trajectory for 2022. 

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasted that global petroleum consumption will increase by 3.6 million barrels a day in 2022, driven by more consumption in the United States and China, which together account for 39% of the consumption growth. 

They also predicted that global petroleum inventories will increase by 0.5 million barrels a day in 2022, which will put downward pressure on crude oil prices. 

EIA forecasted that Brent crude oil prices will average $60.74 per barrel in 2022. This shows a recovery from the 2020 average of $41.69 per barrel, but it is still lower than pre-pandemic levels.

Low oil prices benefit a number of industries. Unsurprisingly, industries like airlines and transportation that count oil as a direct cost will see their stock prices rise. However, sectors that benefit indirectly from low oil prices, like consumer discretionary and consumer staples, have done even better.

Meanwhile, a possible return of oil demand in the summer of 2022 could result in a spike in oil prices.

Though the Omicron coronavirus variant has pushed COVID-19 cases far above peaks hit last year, some argue that oil prices will be supported by the reluctance of many governments to restore the strict restrictions that hammered the global economy when the pandemic took hold in 2020.

If this scenario applies, then what this means for traders is that usually the expected rate of economic growth will lower and inflation expectations over shorter horizons will increase. Decreasing economic growth prospects, in turn, lower companies' earnings expectations, resulting in a dampening effect on stock prices.


 

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