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Fundamentals

18.08.2022

Europe

In the European session, macroeconomic data flows could enter the markets' radar with a degree of importance. According to preliminary reading data from the European Statistics Office (Eurostat), the euro area's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.9 percent in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter, and below market expectations of 4.0 percent on an annual basis. The data was 0.7 percent monthly and 4.0 percent annually in the previous period. After the announced data, moderate recovery was observed in the euro. However, although the recession concerns have eased somewhat, the high levels of energy prices as a result of the ongoing sanction duel between the West and Russia continue to keep the concerns alive. Natural gas futures in the Dutch stock market are settled above 225 euros. In addition, consumer inflation for the Euro Zone, which will be announced today, will also be closely monitored. Germany is the country most affected by the energy crisis in Europe. News sources close to the subject pointed out that if no natural gas comes from Russia, the country's stocks remain for 3 months. In addition, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who met with Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, stated that the Ukrainian army has the right to use the military equipment provided by their country to liberate Crimea from Russian occupation.

US

In the USA, which is at the focal point of global markets, the minutes of the monetary policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) dated July 26-27 were at the forefront. In the minutes; While it was written that members saw little evidence of easing inflationary pressures and agreed that it would take a long time to resolve the situation, it was reflected that all participants agreed that a 75 basis point rate hike is appropriate at the July meeting. Some respondents noted that the policy rate should reach a sufficiently restrictive level to control inflation and stay there for a while, adding that the strength of the labor market raises the possibility of an upward revision in growth. Finally, it was reported that many officials pointed out that it may be risky for the FED to tighten more than necessary. As a matter of fact, on the night we left behind, US President Joe Biden signed a law that includes comprehensive tax regulations to reduce inflation. On the other hand, when looking at foreign policy developments, US State Department spokesman Ned Price said that the US received comments on the EU's nuclear proposal and was examining them. In the macroeconomic calendar; According to the data of the Census Bureau of the US Department of Labor, retail sales did not change in July compared to the previous month, but grew by 10.30 percent on an annual basis. The data was 8.50 percent in the previous period. As a matter of fact, on the night we left behind, US President Joe Biden signed a law that includes comprehensive tax regulations to reduce inflation. On the other hand, when looking at foreign policy developments, US State Department spokesman Ned Price said that the US received comments on the EU's nuclear proposal and was examining them. In the macroeconomic calendar; According to the data of the Census Bureau of the US Department of Labor, retail sales did not change in July compared to the previous month, but grew by 10.30 percent on an annual basis. The data was 8.50 percent in the previous period.

Britain

Inflation in the UK hit double digits for the first time in 40 years. According to the data of the National Statistics Office (ONS); While the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.6 percent in July, it was at its highest level since 1982 at 10.1 percent, above the market expectations of 9.8 percent on annual basis. British Finance Minister Nadhim Zahawi, on the subject, said that controlling inflation is their top priority and emphasized that they will take action with some measures. Sources close to the subject, on the other hand, emphasize that inflation may exceed 13 percent this year due to the effects of recession concerns as well as the rise in energy prices. In the report published by the world's largest company Citigroup, inflation expectations for the UK were estimated to rise above 15 percent in the first quarter of 2023. In addition, Citi predicted that the Bank of England (BoE) would raise the policy rate by another 125 basis points and raise the rate to 3.0 percent by the end of the year.

Asia

News flows from China are followed by market actors. First of all, Chinese Premier Xi Jinping called on local authorities to strengthen measures to support growth, while Deputy Prime Minister Hu Chunhua said that they would increase the stability and competitiveness of the industrial sector and make efforts to attract new foreign investors to the country. In addition, foreign policy developments in the country continue to maintain their importance recently. The Chinese Ministry of Defense announced that they will send troops to Russia for a joint military exercise in which India, Belarus, and Tajikistan will participate. In the statement, it was stated that participation in the exercises is not related to the current, regional and international situation. In addition, tensions continue to be high in the region after the visits of senior US officials to Taiwan. China, which sees Taiwan as its territory, has recently increased its exercises around the island. In the statement made by the Taiwan Ministry of Defense on the day we left behind, 17 warplanes and 5 warships belonging to China were seen around the island. On the other hand, the Central Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), one of the leading countries in the region, increased the policy interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.0 percent as a result of high inflation in the country. With this decision, RBNZ raised interest rates at four successive meetings.


Indicators

Volatility Indices

Volatilityindices
Volatility IndicesDownload Image

Volatility indices are calculated based on the buy-sell difference of option contracts, in which stocks are the underlying asset. If the index value is below 10 points, optimism is dominant in the markets and investors are willing to take risks, although the calculation between 10 and 30 is considered the normal range, the stress begins to increase and if it is above 30 points, it is interpreted as pessimism is valid and there will be fluctuations in asset pricing.


US Index

USIndex

The minutes for the critical July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) were released during the US session yesterday. We see in the minutes that the dollar started to increase its pressure on international assets, after the Committee Members did not rule out the possibility of a 75 basis point rate hike for the next meeting. Technically, this move can be seen as the preparation for the second wave rise of the dollar index. In the crossings to be provided above the Fibonacci 50.0 percent fan line, the upward momentum can reach 106.85, then 107.35. On the other hand, in easing, the 104.90 level indicated by the 100-period weighted moving average (WMA) will continue to be the recovery zone.

Support106.00105.45104.90
Resistance106.85107.35107.90

Parities

EURUSD

As the gross domestic product (GDP) reported by the European Statistics Office (Eurostat) for the Euro Zone grew by 0.6 percent in the second quarter, the weight on the euro decreased slightly. However, while recession risks to the regional economy due to high energy prices have not been ruled out yet, the euro is struggling to find a meaningful demand. At this point, the persistence of the parity below 1.0250 is extremely critical. As long as this level is not exceeded, the sales that will be in effect may force the pair to decline to the level of 1.0080 behind 1.0125.

Support1.01251.00801.0030
Resistance1.02101.02501.0300

GBPUSD

Consumer inflation in the UK has reached double-digit levels. However, at this point, pound-denominated assets are under pressure as the Bank of England's (BoE) concerns that strong monetary tightening will increase recession risks beyond controlling inflation. In the technical view, it is observed that a transition to 50 MA has been achieved with the channel change. On the other hand, 1.1930 and 1.1875 supports can be observed when the parity, which has managed to achieve sales potential, sags below 1.1985. 1.2135 and 1.2190 resistances can be followed on the transition above 50 WMA, which indicates a possible 1.2085.

Support1.19851.19301.1875
Resistance1.20851.21351.2190

USDJPY

Hedge costs, which rose with the US 10-year bond yields, which reached around 2.90 percent in international markets, weaken the Japanese yen. On the other hand, 136.20 and 136.85 resistances will be followed, respectively, when the parity, which exceeds the descending wedge formation with the strong appearance of the dollar, stretches above 135.60. In possible relaxations, the 134.55 – 134.00 range can work as a strong support zone.

Support134.55134.00133.40
Resistance135.60136.20136.85

Commodities

XAUUSD

We see an ounce of gold struggling to find demand as FOMC minutes reveal members' commitment to aggressive monetary tightening to bring inflation to 2 percent. After short-term stabilization at the 1-month high on August 10, the yellow metal, unable to maintain its gains, ended the wedge formation and headed towards the correction path. If the first-tier commodity can break the 1754 support, it could return its gains to the 1745 level marked by the Fibonacci 50.0 percent rejection line. Above, 50 WMA, which is the value of 1781, is the determinant of buying scenarios.

Support175417451732
Resistance177217811794

USOIL

In China, the world's largest energy importer, authorities have put pressure on demand for crude oil, as authorities ordered some major factories to suspend production as the country faces its worst heat wave in 60 years. On the other hand, on the US side, inventories showed a complex outlook, while crude oil declined to pre-war levels. On closes below the critical 89.25, selling is likely to weigh on 84.65, 86.20 behind, the lowest level since Jan 25. If it is above 89.25, the range of 90.85 – 92.50 can be considered a minor stabilization zone.

Support86.2084.6583.00
Resistance89.2590.8592.50

XAGUSD

Silver, one of the leading members of the precious metals group, failed to maintain its gains against the dollar, which defended its strong outlook and investor risk appetite and continues to decline in international markets. We will closely monitor the 19.45 and 19.20 supports in commodity pricing, which opens the way for a correction path as it hangs below the ascending channel. In the upward trials, 19.90 and 20.15 resistances will be in our follow-up.

Support19.4519.2018.90
Resistance19.9020.1520.40

Indices

DAX40

European stock market indicator DAX40 failed to protect its gains in yesterday's trades, where it touched 2-month highs and retreated to the 100-period exponential moving average (EMA). However, the index, which defends the 100 EMA as a strong support, thus confirmed the rising channel movement. As a matter of fact, the 100 EMA will continue to be the determining factor in index pricing. The index, which will signal that the outlook will remain bullish as long as it does not break with permanent closes, will have 13 760, 13 885 and 14 000 row resistance zones in the channel movement. In case the 100 EMA ends, 13 375 and 13 245 supports can be followed as corrections.

Support13 50013 37513 245
Resistance13 76013 88514 000

S&P500

With the reflections of the FOMC minutes, it is seen that the SP500, which is in a position to guide the global stock markets, has lost some momentum. However, the balance sheet season, which is preparing to meet the market expectations with a rate of over 70 percent, continues to support the index. As a matter of fact, pricing also maintains its upward trend. As long as 4 215 level is not broken as base support below, the buyers index, which will be above, can move to 4 380, which was last seen from April 22, following 4 326.

Support4 2154 1624 100
Resistance4 3264 3804 434

Cryptos

BTCUSD

Bitcoin, which leads the cryptocurrency market, ended its search for direction around the 50 EMA in the quotes that took place yesterday. However, while the bitcoin pricing, which ended the symmetrical triangle formation, was also confirmed by the RSI indicator, the 22 000 support entered the lens of the markets again. The end of this level could accelerate sales down to 19 320 below 20 695, last seen on 13 July. Above, 24 830 and 26 200 resistances remain important.

Support22 00020 69519 320
Resistance24 83026 20027 720

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