SRB/MNE
AL
SLFundamentals
22.03.2023
Europe
While the agenda item of the global markets continued to be the bankruptcy of the US banks, the statement made by S&P Global stated that European banks are resistant to fluctuations. While the ZEW economic sentiment data announced in Germany and the Euro Zone were below expectations, it was stated that the reason for this situation was the fragilities in the banking sector. In the statement made by ZEW, it was stated that the international financial markets were under pressure, and that there were sharp decreases in the forecasts for the insurance sector. When evaluated in general, the liquidity provided to the market eased the concerns about the banking sector and accelerated the recovery in the markets.
US
In her statement yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the banking system continues to remain strong despite the recent developments. Yellen stated that the first priority of US President Joe Biden is financial sustainability, and that necessary steps can be taken to prevent bankruptcies from spreading to small-scale banks. Although it is reported that the problems experienced in general are expected to be limited in the US economy, it does not seem easy for the markets to dismiss these concerns. Although there are important data flows during the day, the markets will focus on the interest rate decision to be announced by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). While the expectations for a 25 basis point increase in the markets are strong, the way the Fed has determined a road map will be clarified with the press release to be made after the decision to be announced.
Britain
British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said in a statement yesterday that British banks have strong capitals regarding the bankruptcy in the USA. Hunt also said that the British banking system is strong and that they continue to monitor the situation closely. The positive statements and data on the economy before the upcoming Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision in the UK limit the depreciation of the Sterling. However, while it is a question of whether the BoE will leave the fight against inflation early, if the interest rates are not increased, serious depreciation may be exhibited in the Sterling.
Asia
After the visit of Chinese President Xi Jimping to Russia, some statements were made by Russian President Vladimir Putin. In one of his talks with Xi, Russia transferred 98 billion cubic meters of gas to China by 2030 and Putin said, regarding the Ukraine war, "We will respond when the collective West begins to use weapons with nuclear components.".
Indicators
Globalyields
Bonds issued by the government or enterprises for financing are the most liquid debt instruments in international markets. In these securities, where the interest rate cycle is mainly priced, the indicator is US 10–years, and its trend is predicted to be reflected inversely to the wave of buying and selling of relatively risky instruments in the markets.
Volatility Indices
Volatility indices are calculated based on the buy-sell difference of option contracts, in which stocks are the underlying asset. If the index value is below 10 points, optimism is dominant in the markets and investors are willing to take risks, although the calculation between 10 and 30 is considered the normal range, the stress begins to increase and if it is above 30 points, it is interpreted as pessimism is valid and there will be fluctuations in asset pricing.
US Index
USIndex
In the index, which was suppressed under the upward channel, our course continues close to the Fibonacci 61.8% correction level before the interest rate decision to be announced by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) today. If this region, which points to the 102.38 level, cannot end the current pressure, it is possible to deepen the downward movements, while 101.90 and 101.54 levels may be desired to be tested. However, 103.50 level, which coincides with the lower band of the upward channel, may become a target in the recovery that will occur in our permanence above the 102.38 support.
| Support | 102.38 | 101.90 | 101.54 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | 103.00 | 103.50 | 103.85 |
Parities
EURUSD
In the general framework, the currency pair, which is in the upward channel, finally terminates the correction channel, enabling the upward movements in the parity to revive. Technically, we are following the 1.0785 resistance, which is indicated by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, while the 1.0830 and 1.0925 resistances can take their place among the targets in a permanence that can be achieved over this region. However, in our permanence below 1.0785 resistance, decreases towards 1.0715 support, which corresponds to the upper band of the correction channel, will be possible.
| Support | 1.0715 | 1.0690 | 1.0620 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | 1.0785 | 1.0830 | 1.0885 |
GBPUSD
The interest rate decisions to be announced by the central banks of the USA today and the UK tomorrow cause fluctuations in the parity. Technically speaking, while it is possible to continue the upward movements in the exchange rate on the upward channel and the trend, 1.2255 will be our first resistance, and if this is exceeded, new rises can be exhibited towards the 1.2340 resistance. However, if the 1.2255 resistance is not exceeded, 1.2160 support may come to the fore in the possible decreases.
| Support | 1.2160 | 1.2120 | 1.2070 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | 1.2255 | 1.2280 | 1.2340 |
USDJPY
Although the recovery resurfaces in the currency pair, which maintains its permanence on the uptrend, it continues to be suppressed under the 50-period simple moving average. As long as we stay under this region, which points to the 133.20 resistance, we expect the declines to come to the fore again, and 131.85 and 131.20 supports will be in our follow-up. However, if there is a movement that intends to continue the current recovery, 133.20 and then 133.65 will have to be overcome.
| Support | 131.85 | 131.20 | 130.70 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | 132.50 | 132.80 | 133.20 |
Commodities
XAUUSD
In the general framework, the precious metal, which maintains its persistence in the upward channel, is under the minor trend before today's Fed decision, while it is testing the Fibonacci 38.2 percent retracement level. While the support of 1835 remains critical, it is possible for the upward movements to gain momentum as long as we stay above this region, while exceeding the 1965 level after the 1958 resistance may strengthen these movements. However, if the 1935 support fails to end the current pressure, we can observe that the 1912 and 1885 supports have become targets.
| Support | 1935 | 1912 | 1900 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | 1958 | 1965 | 1985 |
USOIL
In the commodity, which is on the minor uptrend, the statement made by Goldman Sachs Commodities Chairman yesterday that supply will lag behind demand supported the upward movements. The persistence of the commodity fluctuating in the 69.20 region, which marks the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level, may contribute to the acceleration of the rises towards the $70.85 – $71.00 resistance range.
| Support | 69.20 | 68.30 | 67.50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | 70.00 | 70.85 | 71.50 |
XAGUSD
The fact that the precious metal, which continues its movement in the horizontal band, could not exceed the upper band, brought decreases in commodities. While 22.05 is our first critical support in silver, which we have fallen under the uptrend, if this region cannot end the declines, momentum can be gained towards 21.65 support. However, 22.60 continues to be our first critical resistance for the recovery to be experienced in the persistence above the 22.05 support, while a persistence above this point may further accelerate the rises.
| Support | 22.30 | 22.05 | 21.65 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | 22.60 | 22.90 | 23.25 |
Indices
DAX40
Positive statements about European banks and the increased risk appetite in the global market brought about a recovery in the index. In the index, where the level of 15 270 is of critical importance for us in technical terms, if a permanence can be achieved on this region, the level of 15 500 can take its place among the targets. However, if the 15 270 resistance is not overcome, the 15 090 and 14 970 supports will be in our follow-up in the index, which will be open to profit sales.
| Support | 15 090 | 14 970 | 14 830 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | 15 270 | 15 380 | 15 500 |
DOW30
We observe that the recovery trend, which started with the end of the minor downtrend, continues, although it is in the downward channel in the general framework. In the name of the continuity of the current upward enthusiasm, we are following the persistence above the level of 32 335, while the resistances of 32 680 and 32 790 appear as our priorities. However, as long as we stay in the downward channel, it is possible for the declines to come to the fore again, while the permanence to be provided under the 32 335 support can accelerate the declines again.
| Support | 32 335 | 31 780 | 31 570 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | 32 680 | 32 790 | 33 000 |
S&P500
The resistance of 4 010 in the index, which fluctuates around the downtrend before the interest rate decision to be announced by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), remains important for us. While it is possible for the rises to gain momentum in the permanence that can be achieved on this region, 4 080 and 4 155 resistances can be among the targets. However, if 4 010 resistance is not overcome, 3 965 and 3 925 will appear as our first critical supports in the index, which will come under selling pressure again.
| Support | 3 965 | 3 925 | 3 880 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | 4 010 | 4 080 | 4 155 |
Cryptos
BTCUSD
The possibility of continuation of upward movements in Bitcoin, which is on both the upward channel and the trend, is considered strong. While we are following the Fibonacci 61.8% expansion level, which coincides with the 28 480 resistance, it can accelerate its rise in the permanences that can be provided on this region and continue its progress until the 34 050 level. On the other hand, if the 28 480 resistance is not exceeded, the losses may deepen again if the crypto money, which may show decreases, falls below the 27 430 support.
| Support | 27 430 | 25 140 | 24 460 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | 28 480 | 31 750 | 34 050 |
